Proface

Gold is defensive just below $1400 level after Asian stocks rebounded and the dollar caught a bit of a bid. Focus seems to rest on central bank expectations at this point, which by extension in the U.S. anyway means focus is on the data.

The May employment report comes out on Friday with the median for nonfarm payrolls around +165k. That's not a particularly good number, certainly not likely to incent the Fed to start pulling back accommodations. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 7.5%.

Bill Gross of PIMCO suggested in his June Investment Outlook that "Perhaps zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing programs are becoming as much of the problem as the solution." Now if the Fed started tapering accommodations based on a realization that they're too costly for the results being achieved, I'd stand up and cheer.

However, as the old adage goes, 'If you only have a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.' I therefore fear that the Fed is loathe to admit the last remaining tool in the toolbox just isn't working and so they'll keep pounding that 'nail'.

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